{"id":234557,"date":"2022-09-13T10:09:00","date_gmt":"2022-09-13T10:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/haftavasool.com\/haftavasool\/?p=234557"},"modified":"2022-09-13T10:09:00","modified_gmt":"2022-09-13T10:09:00","slug":"forget-recession-soft-landing-for-india-means-fast-growth-if-not-the-fastest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/haftavasool.com\/haftavasool\/blog\/2022\/09\/13\/forget-recession-soft-landing-for-india-means-fast-growth-if-not-the-fastest\/","title":{"rendered":"Forget Recession, Soft Landing For India Means Fast Growth, If Not The Fastest"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Soft landing for India means fast, if not fastest, growth<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

India’s central bank, which last month vowed to do \u201cwhatever it takes<\/a>\u201d to fight inflation, is expected to refocus efforts toward its own version of a soft landing where it tackles price gains while trying to ensure growth remains among the world’s fastest.<\/p>\n

Economists see Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das and his monetary policy panel colleagues to begin\u00a0dialing down<\/a>\u00a0the pace of interest-rate hikes this month after data showed a weaker-than-expected recovery last quarter.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gross domestic product expansion of 13.5 per cent in the April-June period was below the RBI’s 16.2\u00a0per cent estimate, a red flag for policy makers who have been consistent in their messaging about the need to preserve growth.<\/p>\n

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\u201cI see a soft landing as a trajectory of policy rates that minimizes the growth sacrifice,\u201d said Jayanth Rama Varma, a member of the RBI’s rate-setting panel.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Mr Varma, a monetary policy hawk, had voted in favor of a half-point hike at the August meeting when Das pledged to return inflation to its target of 2 to 6\u00a0per cent from around 7 per cent.<\/p>\n

Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have already lowered the growth forecast for India to 7\u00a0per cent from 7.2 per cent, while Citigroup Inc. cut it more sharply to 6.7 per cent.<\/p>\n

The country, which last year was the world’s fastest growing major economy, is poised to lose that spot to Saudi Arabia this year, according to International Monetary Fund projections in July.<\/p>\n

Deutsche Bank AG sees the RBI, which delivered\u00a0140 basis points<\/a>\u00a0of hikes since May including two half-point increments, now slowing rate hikes to quarter-point adjustments from here on.\u00a0<\/p>\n

After a couple of more increases, India could be reaching the end of a rate-hike cycle, said Arup Raha, chief economist for Asia-Pacific with Oxford Economics.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are lots of uncertainties for policy makers to consider,\u201d he said. \u201cIf they’re going to err, they’re better off trying to promote growth as long as inflationary expectations remain anchored.\u201d<\/p>\n

Beyond rates, the RBI has been stepping in to protect the rupee after it breached 80 to a dollar levels a few times, which in turn helps check imported inflation.<\/p>\n

Those interventions have made the Indian currency one of Asia’s most resilient so far this year.<\/p>\n

Elsewhere in the region, the Malaysian ringgit and the Philippine peso have declined to multi-year lows amid dollar strength on expectations the US Federal Reserve will press ahead with large hikes to tame inflation.<\/p>\n

That is likely to force monetary authorities, including Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, to closely watch the Fed’s actions.<\/p>\n

For India, the dynamics are significantly different.<\/p>\n

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\u201cIndia doesn’t need to keep pace with the US Fed,\u201d said Sonal Varma, an economist with Nomura Holdings Inc.<\/p>\n

\u201cIndia did not overheat like the US and there is no wage-price spiral. No one should expect India to slip into recession, nor for the inflation-targeting central bank to sacrifice growth too much,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

–With assistance from\u00a0Vrishti Beniwal.<\/em><\/p>\n

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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[ad_1] Soft landing for India means fast, if not fastest, growth India’s central bank, which last month vowed to do \u201cwhatever it takes\u201d to fight inflation, is expected to refocus efforts toward its own version of a soft landing where it tackles price gains while trying to ensure growth remains among the world’s fastest. Economists […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":234558,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[117943,4925,210602,21618,2750,969],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haftavasool.com\/haftavasool\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234557"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haftavasool.com\/haftavasool\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haftavasool.com\/haftavasool\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haftavasool.com\/haftavasool\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haftavasool.com\/haftavasool\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=234557"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/haftavasool.com\/haftavasool\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234557\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haftavasool.com\/haftavasool\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/234558"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haftavasool.com\/haftavasool\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=234557"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haftavasool.com\/haftavasool\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=234557"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haftavasool.com\/haftavasool\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=234557"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}