{"id":275310,"date":"2023-01-07T15:36:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-07T15:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/haftavasool.com\/haftavasool\/blog\/2023\/01\/07\/prannoy-roy-ruchir-sharma-on-top-economic-predictions-for-2023-highlights\/"},"modified":"2023-01-07T15:36:00","modified_gmt":"2023-01-07T15:36:00","slug":"prannoy-roy-ruchir-sharma-on-top-economic-predictions-for-2023-highlights","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/haftavasool.com\/haftavasool\/blog\/2023\/01\/07\/prannoy-roy-ruchir-sharma-on-top-economic-predictions-for-2023-highlights\/","title":{"rendered":"Prannoy Roy, Ruchir Sharma On Top Economic Predictions For 2023: Highlights"},"content":{"rendered":"

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New Delhi: <\/b><\/p>\n

NDTV’s Prannoy Roy discusses the top 10 trends of global economy in 2023 with Ruchir Sharma, the Founder of Breakout Capital and Chairman of Rockefeller International. In his forecast, Mr Sharma says that the global economy, which is slowing down, is in for the long grind. He feels that this will also have a impact on India’s economy, which may not grow above a rate of 5 per cent.<\/p>\n

Mr Sharma also feels that the tech bubble has burst, people might now invest in physical assets.<\/p>\n

Here are the highlights from Prannoy Roy’s show:<\/h2>\n

Get NDTV UpdatesTurn on notifications to receive alerts as this story develops<\/b>.<\/span><\/span>

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There Will Be Return To Orthodoxy: Ruchir Sharma<\/span>
Prannoy Roy: <\/b>Your next point is that there will be a return to orthodoxy, and what do you mean by that? <\/p>\n

Ruchir Sharma: <\/b>Because the era of easy money is over, interest rates have risen everywhere. Financing in general has become much more difficult. In this environment, the scope for policymakers to do something too experimental, something away from what is defined as economic orthodoxy, which is that you need to follow a tight fiscal policy, you need to have relatively high interest rates, if you try do so something different the markets going to come and punish you.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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What Japan’s Resurgence Means For India<\/span>
“Japan’s been a major investment partner of India. Having a healthier Japan with better corporate balance sheets could further that process,” says Ruchir Sharma. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Streaming Services Cutting Back Dramatically In US, India<\/span><\/p>\n

Ruchir Sharma: <\/b>I’ve heard that some of India’s leading services, if they were to buy, say, 30 or 25 to 30 movies directly to go digital, that number is likely to be in the single digits, maybe 6 or 7.<\/p>\n

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Less Money Meant Better TV?<\/span>
“We saw a surge in the number of new streaming services, and we saw so much cheap money available to fund new projects and new series so global content spent on television surged over the last few years. But my point is that quality went down. That so many shows were commissioned which were possibly poorly conceived with the script or the concept was improperly done, but just in a hurry to get new subscribers,” says Ruchir Sharma.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Tech Boom Over<\/span><\/p>\n

Ruchir Sharma: <\/b>By market value, the top ten tech firms in the world at the beginning of every decade change, and as you can see, eight to nine of them change.<\/p>\n

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“When we had the last tech boom, which ended in 2000, the top tech firms in the world then were very different from what you have today; those days you had Cisco, Intel, and IBM. The only survivor in a way has been Microsoft,” adds the global investor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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America Down, Rest Of The World Up<\/span>
Ruchir Sharma: <\/b>After this very extraordinary decade that America has had of great performance, I think that it is now set to underperform in the coming decade. Also because its size has become disproportionate, it will allow other countries, including emerging markets such as India, to do much better than America. That’s my forecast, and I think in 2023 we are likely to see shades of that play itself out.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Bangalore, Chennai Among World’s Least Expensive Cities<\/span><\/p>\n

Three out of the bottom ten cheapest cities are in India. Among the world’s least expensive cities are – Bangalore, Chennai and\u00a0 Ahmedabad, says Ruchir Sharma.<\/p>\n

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As The World Slows, So Will India<\/span><\/p>\n

India’s growth will slow as the global economy slows down, discuss Prannoy Roy and Ruchir Sharma. Mr Sharma feels it will be nearly impossible for the India’s growth rate to be above 5 per cent this year. <\/p>\n

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Global Economy Slowing, But Unemployment Rates Still At Record Low<\/span>
“The global economy been slowing down and yet unemployment rates around the world are close to record lows.It is very hard to get people to come back into the labor force. A lot of people are still living off a lot of the stimulus that was put doing the pandemic,” says Ruchir Sharma. <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The Long Grind In 2023<\/span><\/p>\n

Ruchir Sharma: <\/b>In the last three or four decades, because inflation was low and falling the governments and central banks were able to come out there and put out a lot of stimulus and that was particularly true in the pandemic that we saw stimulus like never before during the pandemic.<\/p>\n

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Physical World vs Virtual Economy<\/span>
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In 2022, Retail Mania Around The World Has Cooled: Ruchir Sharma<\/span>
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Why Is Everybody Worried About TikTok<\/span>
When asked about why is everyone worried about TikTok, global investor Ruchir Sharma says, “I think it’s pretty obvious. It’s Chinese and so popular and I think that they have very sophisticated algorithm AI systems which I think a lot of people feel sort-of breaches the line.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Bosses vs Employees On Work From Home<\/span><\/p>\n

Prannoy Roy: <\/b>“Employees or staff say they are productive at home so let me stay at home. Eighty seven per cent employees say they are productive at home but their bosses say, sorry I don’t believe you. Only 12 percent of bosses believe that employees are productive at home. What’s the truth?”<\/p>\n

Ruchir Sharma:<\/b> “It depends who you ask. If it’s clearly not showing up in the productivity numbers, maybe the bosses are a bit more correct, we don’t know or it’s too complicated a model, but I find this fascinating about this dichotomy in terms of what the employees believe and what the bosses believe.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Why Tech Boom Hasn’t Improved Productivity<\/span>
“I think a good reason for that could be the fact that you have too many inefficient zombie companies are which are kept alive. One statistic like in the US, the number of inefficient zombie companies, companies that are not able to even service their deals without borrowing more and more that, that number too shot up from nearly two percent in the 1980’s to nearly twenty percent now,” says Ruchir Sharma.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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How Global Inflation Fared In 2022 <\/span>
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Global Commodity Prices To Remain Relatively High<\/span>
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High Debt On Private Sector In Developed Economies<\/span>
“Developed countries like the US have taken on so much debt on the private sector side in terms of the firms, that as interest rates have gone up, the cost of servicing the debt has been going up a lot,” says Ruchir Sharma.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Demographic Changes Affecting Global Economy<\/span>
The global economy which used to grow at let’s say at 3.5-4% now is lucky to grow at 2.5-3% largely because of the demographic changes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Recap Of 2022: Decline In Birth Rates<\/span>
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