While the numbers show that BJP loses more seats by narrower margins than the Congress, political experience shows that the presence of the JD(S) candidate helps the BJP more than the Congress. That is, the BJP is not losing narrowly because their votes were cut – but rather, Congress’ victory margin is lowered because JD(S) takes their votes.

This is because of the JD(S) strategy of candidate selection in constituencies where they do not have a base. In these places, JD(S) waits for the Congress and BJP to announce their candidates. The announcement usually causes some sort of local dissidence. JD(S), which is nearly always the last to announce candidates, offers tickets to these disgruntled Congress or BJP leaders.

The BJP, a cadre-based party, is less likely to see disgruntled leaders leave. Moreover, its core voters are likely to vote on ideology, and not for their preferred local leader. Much more likely than not, the disgruntled leaders or local community leaders who join the JD(S) seek votes from the same base as the Congress – religious minorities and certain marginalised castes.

A stark example of this is Badami constituency in Central Karnataka. In 2018, the constituency was the site of a high-profile clash between incumbent Chief Minister Siddaramaiah from the Congress and the influential BJP leader B Sriramulu. Siddaramaiah scraped through by a margin of just 1,696 votes.

What is forgotten in this clash is the role of the JD(S). The party had fielded a leader who had quit the Congress just a few months before the election. The former Congress leader had clout and even a few disgruntled Congress workers on his side. He managed to get 24,484 votes in the constituency. The Congress’ victory margin reduced from nearly 15,000 in 2013 to just 1,696 – and it can be argued that the JD(S) was a significant factor.

Another instance is the Kungol constituency in Dharwad where the BJP lost by a margin of just 634 votes in 2018.

In the 2013 election, the Congress’s victory margin was over 20,000 votes – primarily due to a split in the BJP, and anti-incumbency. The Congress, BJP and JD(S) had then put up Lingayat candidates, hoping to win over the numerically sizeable community.

In 2018, while the Congress and BJP fielded Lingayat candidates, JD(S) fielded a Muslim community leader. JD(S) polled 6,280 votes here, which are more likely to have come from the Congress’s vote base rather than the BJP. If the JD(S) had not fielded a candidate, the Congress would have likely won by a much higher margin.

Frenemies

The complexities of Karnataka’s politics are perhaps best explained by the dilemma the Congress faces. The JD(S) may be cutting into Congress votes in North and Central Karnataka. But, in South Karnataka, the presence of JD(S) significantly helps the Congress. If JD(S) declines in this region, the BJP benefits greatly, as it can build a strong base in a region where it is currently the weakest.

This is apparent from the results of the Lok Sabha elections held a year after the Karnataka state polls. The JD(S)’s vote share reduces to just 10% in the state – and their votes come only from Southern Karnataka.

*In 2019, INC and JD(S) fought the general election as pre-poll alliance partners. For the 2018 Karnataka election, the vote share of JD(S) and BSP are considered together because they were in an alliance; for 2013, the vote shares of BJP are added with their break-away factions of KJP and BSRCP.

The JD(S), being a regional party, does not have the spread to win many parliamentary seats. In Lok Sabha elections, many JD(S) supporters do not vote for their candidate as they know it is unlikely for the regional party to win a parliamentary seat.

But these voters are more likely to vote for the BJP than the Congress in Lok Sabha elections. This is not just the “Modi effect”. It’s been happening before Narendra Modi was ever in the national political landscape. As seen before, the Congress-JD(S) are rivals in 29 assembly constituencies in South Karnataka – and this political rivalry has seeped into grassroots JD(S) workers who prefer voting for the BJP over their ‘archenemy’ Congress.

This was apparent in 2019 when the JD(S) and Congress, who were in a coalition government, formed a pre-poll alliance for the Lok Sabha elections. Despite the alliance, JD(S) voters did not vote for the Congress candidate and instead voted for the BJP candidate. The BJP got a remarkable 25 out of 28 seats in Karnataka.

In nine parliamentary constituencies that usually see a three-way contest, the Congress’s vote share reduced by 12.5 percentage points and the JD(S) vote share reduced by 7.76 percentage points in 2019. Many Congress workers refused to vote for the JD(S) candidate, and many JD(S) workers refused to vote for the Congress.

This is all to say that if the JD(S) weakens in Southern Karnataka, then the voters are more likely to vote for the BJP than Congress. Without the JD(S), the BJP, which has never won a majority on its own in Karnataka, could become the dominant party in the state.

Mohit M Rao is an independent journalist based out of Bengaluru.